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Some spectacular atrocities would enable it once again to dominate the news agenda and show it is not beaten.
As Isis weakens and becomes less of a threat, the edgy détente between different anti-Isis forces, such as the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Kurds, will begin to fray.
There is a no reason the same thing should not happen in the west of the city where the warren of streets gives the defence an advantage.
Foreign fighters know they cannot blend into the population and escape, so they have no choice but to fight to the death.
The answers to such questions will decide if we are really getting towards the end of the terrible wars in Iraq and Syria that have ravaged the region since 2003 or if we are only seeing an end to a phase in the conflict.
In Iraq, the government has survived the disasters of 2014 and is about to defeat Isis in Mosul, though the Baghdad administration remains spectacularly corrupt, sectarian and dysfunctional.